Hormuz at Zero: The Supply Chain Impact Nobody Is Pricing Correctly The Strait has been effectively closed since March 4, with tanker traffic at zero. The real risk is not the ceasefire itself but the mid-April supply cliff when SPR releases and sanctions waivers lose effectiveness — doubling the loss from 4.5-5M bpd to 9-10M bpd. energygeopoliticscommoditiesgold BRENTWTIGLDCNOOC0857.HKURA