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Jun 25, 2026 阅读中文版

Memory Snapped Back, but Nvidia Did Not Follow

June 25 delivered a powerful memory snapback: Micron +15.7%, SK hynix +11.3%, Samsung +5.3%, Tokyo Electron +7.8%, KOSPI +5.4%, and Nikkei +4.6%. But Nvidia fell 1.6% and TSMC was flat. The AI chain repaired, but leadership came from supply elasticity rather than the demand anchor.

Tags
memorysemiconductorskoreajapantaiwandispersionai-compute
Tickers
MUSMHNVDA000660.KS005930.KS^N2258035.T2330.TW

The Strongest Name Was Not Nvidia

On June 25, semiconductors again became the strongest global line, but the leadership mattered. Micron rose 15.7%, SMH 2.9%, and AMD 2.5%, while Nvidia fell 1.6%. In Korea, SK hynix rose 11.3%, Samsung 5.3%, and the KOSPI 5.4%. In Japan, the Nikkei gained 4.6% and Tokyo Electron 7.8%. In Taiwan, TSMC was flat, while MediaTek, Alchip, and ASE-related exposure rose sharply (sources: Yahoo Finance, KRX, Yahoo Finance Japan / Taiwan; June 25, 2026).

This was not a clean “AI up everywhere” day. If it were, Nvidia and TSMC should have confirmed. The real bounce came from the parts hit hardest the prior day and still tied to supply elasticity: Micron, SK hynix, Tokyo Electron, and selected Taiwan design and packaging links.

Macro was only partly supportive. VIX edged up to 18.89, the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.40%, but high-yield spreads widened to 2.78 (sources: Cboe, FRED, ICE BofA). Rates gave valuations room; credit spreads warned that risk had not fully cleared.

The Other Side

The constructive reading is that June 23’s break was repaired by a cross-market memory rebound. That has force: the move happened in several markets and the magnitude was large.

The cautious reading is that the main demand anchor, Nvidia, did not follow, and TSMC did not confirm either. Micron and SK hynix look more like a supply-bottleneck snapback after forced selling than a full reset of AI capex expectations. That distinction matters for persistence.

What To Watch

The key is not “semis are back.” It is which semis came back. If Nvidia and TSMC catch up, the rebound gains confirmation. If leadership remains memory, equipment, and high-beta Taiwan links, the market is still pricing elasticity inside a narrow chain.


Sources: Yahoo Finance daily prices for MU, SMH, AMD, NVDA, TLT, and GLD; KRX / Yahoo Finance Korea; Yahoo Finance Japan / Taiwan; Cboe VIX; FRED and ICE BofA credit spreads. Data window: June 25, 2026 close. Coverage is limited to major indexes and selected monitored instruments, not a full-market scan. This piece is a personal observation and does not constitute investment advice.

This content represents independent research and personal opinion for informational purposes only. Nothing herein constitutes investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results.