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Cross-Asset Risk: Strong Equities, Weak Bonds, Cold Crypto
May 27, 2026 阅读中文版

Cross-Asset Risk: Strong Equities, Weak Bonds, Cold Crypto

Executive Summary

This is not a simple broad-risk rally. On May 26, 2026, QQQ was up 9.9% over one month and 20.0% over three months. SPY was up 5.0% and 9.1% over the same windows. US growth equities are strong. But long-duration bonds, crypto, and macro rates have not confirmed the same story. TLT is down 5.4% over three months. BTC is down 14.4% year to date. ETH is down 31.0% year to date. The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.57% on May 21, up 49bp over three months.

The better description is a fragmented tape. Growth equities are pricing AI and earnings resilience. Bonds are still pricing nominal-rate pressure. Crypto is not behaving like a synchronized risk-temperature gauge.

Core Findings

First, US equity strength is concentrated in Nasdaq exposure. QQQ is up 9.9% over one month, 20.0% over three months, and 19.0% year to date. SPY is up 5.0%, 9.1%, and 9.8%.

Second, bonds are not confirming an easy-money revaluation. TLT is down 5.4% over three months, 7.6% below its 52-week high, and only 2.4% above its 52-week low.

Third, crypto has not joined the move. BTC is down 14.4% year to date and ETH is down 31.0%. The latest BTC Fear & Greed reading is 34, still classified as Fear.

Fourth, Chinese assets are split internally. The CSI 300 PE percentile is 98.9%, while the Hang Seng Tech PE percentile is only 20.5%. Broad A-share indices and Hong Kong technology are not the same trade.

Fifth, public ALLW holdings still lean toward TIPS and cash. On May 22, 2026, TIPS were 35.6% of the portfolio, cash money market exposure was 34.3%, and equity ETFs were 20.7%.

Equities Are Strong, But Not Everything Is Strong

The local market database shows that on May 26, 2026, QQQ closed at 729.54, up 9.9% over one month, 20.0% over three months, and 19.0% year to date. It was at a 52-week high. SPY closed at 749.81, up 5.0% over one month, 9.1% over three months, and 9.8% year to date. It was also at a 52-week high.

If the analysis stops at equity indices, this looks like warmer risk appetite. Cross-asset evidence narrows the conclusion. TLT closed at 85.05 on the same day, down 1.9% over one month and 5.4% over three months. It was 7.6% below its 52-week high. Equities are rising while long bonds are weak. That is not a classic discount-rate-driven revaluation. It looks more like a localized move supported by earnings expectations and the AI narrative.

The distinction matters. A broad rise in risk appetite normally lowers volatility, lifts growth assets, improves credit, and helps duration assets. The current pattern is closer to strong growth equities and weak duration bonds. The market is not trading one unified easing story.

Rates Have Moved Back Up

The local FRED mirror shows a meaningful upward move in the US curve over the last three months. DGS10 was 4.57% on May 21, 2026, up 27bp over one month and 49bp over three months. DGS2 was 4.08%, up 60bp over three months. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate, T10YIE, was 2.40%, up 12bp over three months.

This combination does not look like a recessionary rate-cut trade. The unemployment rate was 4.3% in April 2026, unchanged over three months. M2 money supply was $22.686 trillion in March 2026, up $332.4 billion over three months. Money supply is expanding, but rates are not falling. Inflation, fiscal supply, or term premium pressure still matters for pricing.

DXY is also not simply weakening in a straight line. The local market database shows DXY down 9.4% from January 2, 2025 to May 26, 2026, but up 1.2% over the latest three months. A weaker longer-term dollar and a firmer short-term dollar can coexist, and that helps explain why the risk move has not spread cleanly across assets.

Crypto Has Not Confirmed the Equity Move

BTC and ETH are the clearest counterevidence to a synchronized risk move. On May 26, 2026, BTC-USD closed at 75,936, down 6.2% over one month and 14.4% year to date, 39.1% below its 52-week high. ETH-USD closed at 2,071.04, down 12.3% over one month and 31.0% year to date, 55.8% below its 52-week high.

The BTC Fear & Greed Index has not turned hot either. The latest value on May 26 was 34, classified as Fear. Over the prior 90 days, the average was 23.4, with 42 Extreme Fear days and zero Extreme Greed days.

If this were a broad cross-asset risk move, crypto would normally be less cold. Crypto does not negate the strength in US growth equities. It does show that the spillover is limited.

China and Hong Kong Are Split

The local PE tool shows another internal split. CSI 300 PE TTM is 14.71, at the 98.9th percentile of the available history, with 741 history days and medium confidence. CSI 500 and CSI1000 are also above the 96th percentile.

Hang Seng Tech is different. Its PE TTM is 20.62, at the 20.5th percentile, with 799 history days and high confidence. This means broad domestic A-share valuation expansion and Hong Kong technology repair are not the same thing. Broad A-share indices look high in their local percentile history. Hong Kong technology still looks closer to an incomplete low-percentile repair.

The boundary is important. The local tool covers only four broad indices: CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI1000, and Hang Seng Tech. It does not cover sector PE, industry PE, or single-stock PE for China and Hong Kong.

The All-Weather Proxy Is Not Chasing High Beta

ALLW holdings provide one asset-allocation cross-check. In the latest May 22, 2026 snapshot, TIPS were 35.6%, cash money market exposure was 34.3%, equity ETFs were 20.7%, Treasury bills were 4.9%, and USD cash was 3.1%. Commodity swaps were only about 1.0%, and equity-index futures about 0.8%.

ALLW is a public ETF, not a full mirror of Bridgewater’s private strategies. Still, the public all-weather expression is not showing a high-beta equity chase. It looks more consistent with an environment where real rates and cash yields remain relevant.

What We Do Not Know

The local FRED macro data are not intraday data. DGS10 and DGS2 in this report are current through May 21, 2026. T10YIE is current through May 22, 2026.

The local database does not contain full-market sector valuation coverage. The China and Hong Kong valuation discussion is limited to four broad indices and should not be extended into sector conclusions.

ALLW represents public ETF holdings only. It should not be treated as the complete asset allocation of all Bridgewater strategies.

Conclusion

This is not a neat broad-risk rally. A better description is that AI and growth equities are pulling US stocks higher, bonds are still pricing rate pressure, crypto has not confirmed the move, and Chinese assets are split between high-percentile broad A-share indices and lower-percentile Hong Kong technology.

The keyword is localization, not full diffusion. If 10-year Treasury yields fall quickly, TLT and growth equities could start moving together again. If BTC and ETH regain strength, cross-asset spillover would become more credible. Until those signals appear, strength in US growth equities should not be treated as proof that the whole market has warmed at the same time.

Data and Sources

This report is an independent KSINQ market observation for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice. Data snapshot: May 27, 2026.